The Saeculum Decoded
A Blog by Neil Howe

Fewer Americans Moving than any time since WWII

 4th Turning (Crisis), Baby Boomer, Generation X, Generations  Add comments
Dec 172009
 

This article in the Washington Post describes how Americans are much less mobile than they have been in the past.

This is an important trend, and we have been following it.  One important driver—unmentioned here—is generational.  Back in the 1970s, different family generations didn’t want to live near each other: G.I. (born 1901-1924) senior citizens wanted to move to their own cultural enclaves in Sun Cities; Boomer (born 1943-1960) wanted to move to distant communities where they could redefine their lifestyles.  With the divorce rate rising, even couples didn’t want to live together.  We were in a Second Turning (Awakening).  Back then, no one want to live together.  The 1970s experienced the biggest decline in the average number of persons per household of any decade in U.S. history.

Today, the trends are all moving in the other direction.  Millennial (born 1982-200?) say they want to live near their parents.  Boomers want to live near their kids.  Multigenerational families are back in vogue.

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  • seerov

    This is obviously related to the uncertainty of the day. I expect people to start moving towards a multigenerational-extended family configuration by 2020-2030. Fuel costs, a slow growing economy, and the demographic transition will increase tribalism, and may result in a major political shift of population groups in North America by 2050.

  • joshjohnson

    This phenomenon has everything to do with being underwater on a mortgage. A high percentage of mortgages originated since 2005 are all underwater, meaning that the homeowner owes the bank far more than the house is worth in the current real estate market for houses. Since the majority of Millenials are largely too young to have participated in the home buying market in the last five years, had too much debt from college, or simply weren't ready to do so, and because the vast majority of Boomers already had a mortgage, this points to a large number of Generation X folk who are still paying on their house but they don't know why. What they do know is that they can't sell. And because they can't sell and aren't comfortable with outright foreclosure, they also can't move.

    In some ways, this is accelerating (or pushing) a mid-life Nomad trend in the past that could come again where the cohort settles down and likes life simple and predictable.

    It also has had a major effect on the U.S. economy because the best workers (a combination of lowest pay with most experience, again a place Generation X happens to be at) can't move to where the jobs are being generated.

    You couple this with a 2007 baby boom (4.31m babies born that year compared to 4m the year before), where an inordinate number of women of child-bearing age (most Generation X) left the workforce to raise kid–and took their productivity with them.

   
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