In my mind, our dollar is about to collapse to nothing. There is only one more market bubble to bust, its the bond market and when that happens watch out. No we haven't see the worst of it yet. We are in the early stages of 4T only.

Consider that at the time of the American Revolution (1776) the world population was 3/4 of a billion people. Up to that point the principal sources of energy were wind, water, wood, and draft animals. Coal was just at the beginning of being exploited, and oil did not come until the mid 1800's with natural gas and uranium arriving on the scene even later. These new sources of energy fueled the industrial age and the output from the industrial age drove an explosion of human population up to the present level of about 6.7 billion worldwide, all now hopelessly dependent on the continued output of this age. Think about this a second; all of human history and only 3/4 of a billion could the planet support, and then in 230+ years an explosion up to 6.7 billion hungry mouths.

Oil production will decline at some rate. The decline of oil production in Mexico has been a double digit rate, but let us be conservative and guess that the worldwide decline will initially be 7%. This means that production will be cut in half by the end of 10 years, and cut in half again at the end of another 10 years, again and again into the future. Could the industrial age survive even the first halving of current production? And remember that we are just talking about production without having even mentioned how much energy must be expended to acquire that production. That energy cost has been doubling about every 20 to 23 years and currently is about 8% of production. Stack the energy loss from increasing cost to acquire oil on top of the declining production, and the disaster is magnified. And remember that the grossly bloated human population is hopelessly dependent on the production of the industrial age to survive. All this equals POPULATION CRASH perhaps down to 1 billion by mid century (4 out of 5 dead), much of the loss coming earlier rather than later. The advance through the last 230+ years was relatively orderly because there was plenty of energy to fuel each new way of life, but as we enter the near perpetual contraction of economic activity there will not be adequate energy to fuel the steps backward and build the less advanced tools for survival. Crashes are always disorderly, seemingly sudden and sharp.

My bet is civil war beginning around 2020. What government could possibly remain in power during such a disaster, particularly one already morally and financially bankrupt?

P.S. Jupiter, thank you so much for your supportive remarks. i was in a debate about a month ago and really could have used your support then! –NEIL

If we have settled for the name "Homelander" generation for the new Artist generation, haven't we dated the Crisis, by default, to 9/11? If not, then shouldn't they be called the "Katrina" or "The Great Recession" generation?

Another question…In 10 or 20 years, what event will people – who have never heard of Strauss & Howe, Generations and T4T – look back upon as start of "the bad times" or the point at which things suddenly changed? That's probably more important than all the analysis of those who are conscious of the Cycle. Somehow, I don't think its going to be Katrina.

@ JPT.
I agree totally. I used to believe that 2005 was the start of the Crisis, but have since reconsidered. I think we, as country, are in denial about 9/11 and what it meant and means. I think the nightmare time period from late 2001 to 2009 – Bush, Cheney, WMD, Iraq, Gitmo, Blackwater, 24,Tillman, Plame….all scream Crisis to me. Even the literally unregulated greed and orgy of spending of the time period could be construed as an internalized stress response. The ugly level of political and cultural discourse? It's still there and seems to be getting worse – but are the tea-partiers the "major mood shift" that accompanies the start of a crisis? Gosh, I hope not…how inelegant. I still see the the major mood shift as 9/11. Maybe this Crisis isn't about "coming together," maybe not right now, at least.